BNEF EV Global Projections: Key Takeaways pt. 1



· The US lags Europe and China in the short term, due to less policy support and a limited number of EV models available. The picture changes in the US From the mid 2020s, when the US accelerates quickly due to a high number of households with two or more vehicles and access to home charging options. The EV share of sales in some larger markets in Europe like Germany reach around 90% by 2040. Small markets like the Nordics and the Netherlands get there much sooner.


· EVs take longer to spread in India, Southeast Asia and our Rest of the World countries, where policy support is limited and stripped down, and low-cost internal combustion vehicles are hard to beat on price. Sales grow rapidly in the 2030s as the economics improve in these price-sensitive markets, but different start times for the steep part of the s-curve in different countries draws out the global adoption curve


· The fleet of internal combustion passenger vehicles keeps growing until 2027 in the Economic Transition scenario, before declining steadily. Despite the relatively rapid growth of EV sales, this takes time to flow through to the fleet and there are still over 900 million ICE vehicles on the road in 2040—more than half the fleet


· Fuel cell vehicles start to be sold at a volume in a few markets in the 2030s, but with just 8.6 million on the road in 2040 (up from only 30,000 today), this is well below 1% of the global passenger vehicle fleet. Plug-in hybrids take a slightly larger share, but are quickly surpassed by BEVs on price, performance and overall consumer appeal

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