BNEF EV Global Projections: Key Takeaways pt. 2



· Buses and two and three wheeled vehicles achieve the highest EV adoption rates by 2040 in the Economic Transition Scenario, followed by passenger cars, then light commercial vehicles. By 2040, there are over 600 million passenger EVs on the road and over 750 million electric two and three wheelers


· EV battery demand is also rising quickly, with 2020 shipments 45% higher than in 2019. By 2030, EV battery demand grows to 2575 GWh in the Economic Transition Scenario. Manufacturers have announced plans totaling 2539 GWh of annual capacity due by 2025. China still dominates, but capacity is growing in other regions


· Average battery pack prices go below $100/kWh on a volume weighted average basis by 2024, driven by the introduction of new cell chemistries and manufacturing equipment and techniques. Simplified pack designs for battery-electric vehicle platforms also help. By 2030, pack prices hit $58/kwh, but high levels of investment will be needed to keep prices falling


· New EV battery chemistries are being adopted faster than in the past. NMCA batteries will enter the market in 2021, two years ahead of our previous expectation. This chemistry provides higher energy densities and a longer cycle life than the equivalent NMC or NCA material. By the end of the decade new chemistries using more manganese will become prevalent to reduce pressure on nickel. Lithium and cobalt mining and refining capacity is sufficient for the 2020s, but new nickel and manganese salt production capacity will need to come online to avoid a supply crunch

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